Adaptive Disaster Risk Assessment: Combining Multi-Hazards with Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Dynamic Exposure

Climate change and urbanization increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters. This dissertation proposes an Adaptive Disaster Risk Assessment (ADRA) framework that incorporates socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive exposure associated with human behavior in extreme hydro-meteorological events in the context of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). ADRA uses an index-based approach (PeVI) to assess vulnerability and incorporates exposure through logistic regression and Agent-based models.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 312 pages
Publication date: 09 October 2021
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd

Climate change, coupled with the rapid and often unplanned urbanization trends, is associated with a rising trend in the frequency and severity of disasters triggered by natural hazards. In order to face the impacts of such threats, it is necessary to have an appropriate Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA). Traditional DRA approaches for disaster risk reduction (DRR) have focused mainly on the hazard component of risk, with little attention to the vulnerability and exposure components. To address this issue, this dissertation's main objective is to develop and test a disaster risk modeling framework that incorporates socioeconomic vulnerability and the adaptive nature of exposure associated with human behavior in extreme hydro-meteorological events in the context of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). To achieve the objective, an Adaptive Disaster Risk Assessment (ADRA) framework is proposed. ADRA uses an index-based approach (PeVI) to assess the socioeconomic vulnerability using three components: susceptibility, lack of coping capacities, and lack of adaptation. Furthermore, ADRA explicitly incorporates the exposure component using two approaches; first, a logistic regression model was built using the actual evacuation rates observed during Hurricane Irma, and second, an Agent-based model is used to simulate how households change their exposure levels in relation to different sources of information.

Climate change, combined with the rapid and often unplanned urbanization trends, is associated with a rising trend in the frequency and severity of disasters triggered by natural hazards. In order to face the impacts of such threats, it is necessary to have an appropriate Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA). Traditional DRA approaches for disaster risk reduction (DRR) have focused mainly on the hazard component of risk, with little attention to the vulnerability and exposure components. To address this issue, this dissertation's main objective is to develop and test a disaster risk modeling framework that incorporates socioeconomic vulnerability and the adaptive nature of exposure associated with human behavior in extreme hydro-meteorological events in the context of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). To achieve the objective, an Adaptive Disaster Risk Assessment (ADRA) framework is proposed. ADRA uses an index-based approach (PeVI) to assess the socioeconomic vulnerability using three components: susceptibility, lack of coping capacities, and lack of adaptation. Furthermore, ADRA explicitly incorporates the exposure component using two approaches; first, a logistic regression model was built using the actual evacuation rates observed during Hurricane Irma, and second, an Agent-based model is used to simulate how households change their exposure levels in relation to different sources of information.

Weight: 603g
ISBN-13: 9781032116174