Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

The reproducibility crisis in experimental science is due to a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the work of Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective to silence critics of their political agendas. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability and contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach to resolve the crisis.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 368 pages
Publication date: 18 October 2022
Publisher: Columbia University Press

The reproducibility crisis in experimental science, stemming from a fundamental misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations, poses a significant threat to entire disciplines. This issue, which has profound consequences in a society increasingly reliant on statistics, shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy. The problem's roots can be traced back to the groundbreaking work of Jacob Bernoulli in the seventeenth century, but it has since been plagued by conflicts among rival statistical schools and the influence of political agendas.

In his book, Bernoulli's Fallacy, Aubrey Clayton delves into the history of how statistics deviated from its intended path, exploring the human factors that contributed to the discipline's development and the shortcomings that led to its downfall. He highlights the influence of nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures who sought to develop a statistical methodology that was perceived as objective to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.

Clayton provides a clear and accessible account of the mathematics and logic of probability, presenting complex concepts in a way that is accessible to readers interested in the statistical methods that shape our understanding of the world. He argues that a Bayesian approach, which incorporates prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information, is necessary to address the reproducibility crisis.

Bernoulli's Fallacy spans various disciplines, including math, philosophy, and culture, and offers a comprehensive exploration of why something has gone wrong with our data usage and how to rectify it. By examining the historical roots of the problem and proposing a solution based on a deeper understanding of probability, Clayton provides valuable insights into the importance of accurate data analysis and the potential consequences of flawed statistical methods.

Dimension: 235 x 156 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780231199957