Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong

Alexander B. Downes' book "Catastrophic Success" examines regime change in the world over the past two centuries and finds that it increases the likelihood of civil war and violent leader removal in target states, but fails to reduce the probability of conflict between intervening states and their targets. He argues that foreign-imposed regime change is neither cheap, easy, nor consistently successful and that it drives a wedge between external patrons and their domestic protégés or between protégés and their people. Downes urges leaders and diplomats to reserve regime change for exceptional cases and to rely on other tools of influence, such as diplomacy.

Format: Hardback
Length: 424 pages
Publication date: 15 December 2021
Publisher: Cornell University Press

In his book "Catastrophic Success," Alexander B. Downes meticulously examines all instances of regime change that have occurred around the world over the past two centuries. By leveraging this extensive data set, Downes compellingly demonstrates that regime change not only increases the likelihood of civil war and violent leader removal in target states but also fails to mitigate the risk of conflict between intervening states and their targets. As Downes elucidates, when a state faces an obstinate or dangerous adversary, the temptation to overthrow its government and establish a friendly administration is strong. However, the historical record reveals that foreign-imposed regime change is, in the long term, neither cost-effective, effortless, nor consistently successful. The strategic impetus to forcibly oust antagonistic or non-compliant regimes often overlooks two crucial factors. Firstly, the act of overthrowing a foreign government can lead to the disintegration of its military, resulting in thousands of armed men entering the countryside, where they often engage in insurgency against the intervener. Secondly, externally-imposed leaders must navigate a complex domestic landscape, where their preferences may diverge from those of their external patrons. These divergent interests create a challenging predicament for imposed leaders, as they are compelled to take actions that may please one group while alienating the other. Regime change thus creates a divide between external supporters and their domestic protégés or between protégés and their constituents.

In light of these realities, "Catastrophic Success" offers valuable insights for leaders and diplomats. While regime change may appear to be a quick fix, states are often better off employing alternative tools of influence, such as diplomacy. Regime change should be reserved for exceptional cases where there are clear and promising preconditions for success. Interveners must be aware that, absent such preconditions, regime change often leads to new and unforeseen challenges, exacerbating the situation on the ground.

In conclusion, "Catastrophic Success" is a thought-provoking and insightful book that sheds light on the complex dynamics of regime change and its implications for global politics. By examining the historical record and analyzing the various factors that contribute to regime change, Downes provides valuable guidance for leaders and policymakers seeking to navigate the complex terrain of international relations.

Weight: 28g
Dimension: 229 x 152 x 33 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781501761140