Compound Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

The study explores the potential impacts of compounding risk between natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region, highlighting the challenges of managing such risks.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 56 pages
Publication date: 30 June 2022
Publisher: Asian Development Bank

This comprehensive study delves into the intricate interplay between natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks, particularly focusing on the recent COVID-19 pandemic in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region. Compound risk emerges when two or more shock events coincide, exacerbating the strain on social and physical vulnerabilities. To explore this phenomenon, the study conducts scenario analyses for each CAREC country, envisioning the occurrence of a natural hazard during an outbreak. The findings of the study are insightful, revealing that compound risk poses significant challenges for the CAREC region. Firstly, it highlights the potential for elevated costs of response due to the heightened operational complexity associated with managing multiple shocks simultaneously. This complexity can result in longer timelines required for reconstruction and recovery efforts, further exacerbating the economic and social impacts of the disaster. Moreover, compound risk leads to higher procurement costs as supply interruptions or price shocks disrupt the normal flow of goods and services. This can result in shortages of essential resources, leading to further disruptions and economic losses.

In light of these findings, it becomes imperative to incorporate compound risk considerations into disaster risk management strategies within the CAREC region. This entails developing comprehensive risk assessment frameworks that account for the interdependencies between natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks. It also requires investing in resilient infrastructure and systems that can withstand the combined impacts of multiple shocks. Additionally, fostering effective communication and coordination among stakeholders, including governments, international organizations, and local communities, is crucial for timely response and effective disaster management.

In conclusion, this study underscores the critical importance of addressing compound risk in the context of natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks in the CAREC region. By adopting a holistic and proactive approach, the region can enhance its resilience to disasters, minimize the impacts of compound risk, and promote sustainable development and growth.

Dimension: 280 x 216 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9789292694500