COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics: Mathematical Simulations

This book provides an estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions using the SIR model, linear differential equations, and statistical approach. It offers insights into hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, effective reproduction numbers, and probabilities of meeting an infected person during the COVID-19 pandemic. The information is useful for regulating quarantine activities and predicting medical and economic consequences.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 172 pages
Publication date: 11 February 2022
Publisher: Springer Verlag, Singapore

This book delves into the estimation of epidemic characteristics for diverse countries and regions across the globe, employing a well-established SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic. Additionally, it leverages known exact solutions of linear differential equations and statistical approaches developed in the past. The COVID-19 pandemic holds immense interest to researchers due to its severe mortality and detrimental impact on the global economy. Accurate simulation of pandemic dynamics necessitates the use of complex mathematical models and extensive efforts to identify unknown parameters. A novel method for detecting the emergence of a new pandemic wave is proposed, and the SIR model is generalized. The book presents detailed information on hidden periods, epidemic durations, final case numbers, effective reproduction numbers, and probabilities of encountering an infected individual for countries such as the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. This valuable data serves as a crucial tool for regulating quarantine activities and predicting the medical and economic consequences of future pandemics.

Weight: 291g
Dimension: 235 x 155 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9789813364189
Edition number: 1st ed. 2021