Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China

America and China are in a "superpower marathon" that may last a century, but the sharpest phase may be a decade-long sprint. China is at a perilous moment, with strong enough to challenge the existing order but losing confidence that time is on its side. The Chinese challenge will most likely prove more manageable than many pessimists currently believe, but during the 2020s, the pace of Sino-American conflict will accelerate, and the prospect of war will be frighteningly real. America needs a near-term strategy for navigating the danger zone ahead.

Format: Hardback
Length: 304 pages
Publication date: 14 October 2022
Publisher: WW Norton & Co

The notion that America and China are engaged in a "superpower marathon" that could span a century has gained widespread acceptance. However, Hal Brands and Michael Beckley present a thought-provoking perspective: what if the most intense phase of this competition resembles a decade-long sprint? The Sino-American rivalry is propelled by competing geopolitical interests and a fundamental ideological clash over whether authoritarianism or democracy will prevail in the 21st century. Nevertheless, both historical evidence and China's current trajectory indicate that the peak of this rivalry will occur in the 2020s.

China finds itself in a precarious position: possessing the strength to challenge the established order but losing confidence that time is on its side. Throughout history, rising powers tend to exhibit heightened aggression when their fortunes decline, their challenges multiply, and they realize the urgency of achieving their ambitions. China has already embarked on this trajectory, evident in its aggressive stance towards Taiwan, its impressive military buildup, and its efforts to dominate critical technologies that will shape the world's future.

While the Chinese challenge may appear more manageable in the long term than many pessimists currently assume, the pace of Sino-American conflict is expected to accelerate during the 2020s, raising the specter of war. In their analysis, Brands, Beckley, and America argue that while America will still require a sustainable approach to winning a protracted global competition, it urgently needs a near-term strategy to navigate the perilous period ahead.

To effectively address the challenges posed by the 2020s, America must adopt a multifaceted approach. It should prioritize maintaining a strong military presence to deter potential threats from China. Additionally, fostering diplomatic relations and engaging in constructive dialogue with China are crucial for managing tensions and finding common ground.

Furthermore, America should prioritize economic development and innovation to ensure its competitiveness in the global marketplace. This includes investing in research and development, promoting free trade, and fostering international cooperation to address global challenges such as climate change and pandemics.

In conclusion, the Sino-American rivalry is poised to intensify in the 2020s, presenting a significant challenge to both countries. While the long-term outlook may be uncertain, America can navigate this danger zone by adopting a proactive and sustainable approach. By maintaining a strong military presence, fostering diplomatic relations, promoting economic development, and addressing global challenges, America can position itself as a dominant force in the 21st century.

Weight: 502g
Dimension: 237 x 161 x 28 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781324021308