Delegate Apportionment in the US Presidential Primaries: A Mathematical Analysis

This book provides a comprehensive mathematical description and analysis of the delegate allocation processes in the US Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, focusing on the role of apportionment methods and the effect of thresholds. It evaluates the extent to which each method is susceptible to classical paradoxes and discusses the appointment of delegates based on divisor methods and notions of regressive proportionality.

Format: Hardback
Length: 215 pages
Publication date: 19 March 2023
Publisher: Springer International Publishing AG

This comprehensive book delves into the intricate mathematical description and analysis of the delegate allocation processes in the US Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, with a particular focus on the role of apportionment methods and the impact of thresholds, or the minimum levels of support required to secure delegates. The analysis employs a diverse range of techniques, including theoretical arguments, simplicial geometry, Monte Carlo simulation, and a thorough examination of presidential primary data spanning from 2004 to 2020.

The book is structured into two parts. Part I establishes the framework for understanding the classical apportionment problem and highlights the distinctions between delegate apportionment and apportionment for state representation in the US House of Representatives and for party representation in legislatures based on proportional representation. The authors then delve into the detailed process of assigning delegates to states and congressional districts, outlining the specific delegate apportionment methods employed by the two major parties to distribute delegates to presidential candidates.

Part II takes a deeper dive into the analysis and comparison of the apportionment methods introduced in Part I. It assesses the level of bias and adherence to various notions of proportionality exhibited by these methods. By examining how frequently the methods satisfy the quota condition and quantifying their biases in favor or against the strongest and weakest candidates, the book sheds light on the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It also explores the vulnerability of these methods to classical paradoxes such as the Alabama and population paradoxes, as well as other paradoxes that are more pertinent to delegate apportionment, including the elimination and aggregation paradoxes.

The book evaluates the extent to which each method is susceptible to these paradoxes, providing valuable insights into their strengths and limitations. Furthermore, it delves into the appointment of delegates, examining the criteria and processes used to select delegates and the potential impact of these appointments on the democratic process.

In conclusion, this book offers a thorough and insightful exploration of the delegate allocation processes in the US Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. Through its rigorous mathematical analysis and comprehensive examination of various techniques, it provides valuable insights into the factors that shape the distribution of delegates and the implications of these processes for the democratic process. Whether you are a political analyst, researcher, or simply interested in understanding the intricacies of electoral politics, this book is a must-read for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the delegate allocation processes in the United States.

Weight: 524g
Dimension: 235 x 155 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9783031249532
Edition number: 1st ed. 2023