Domestic Interests, Democracy, and Foreign Policy Change

New leaders may pursue new foreign policies that represent different societal interests and preferences than their predecessors, but democracies' leadership selection processes and policymaking rules blunt their incentives and opportunities for change. Democracies tend to pursue more consistent foreign policies than nondemocracies, even when new leaders with different supporting coalitions assume office. Statistical analyses of military alliances, UNGA voting, economic sanctions, and trade support this argument.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 75 pages
Publication date: 17 March 2022
Publisher: Cambridge University Press

When new leaders assume office, there is always speculation about whether they will deviate from their predecessors' foreign policies or maintain their course. We argue that when new leaders come to power who represent different societal interests and preferences than their predecessors, they may pursue new foreign policies. At the same time, in democracies, leadership selection processes and policymaking rules limit leaders' incentives and opportunities for change. Democracies thus tend to pursue more consistent foreign policies than nondemocracies, even when new leaders with different supporting coalitions take office.

To support our argument, we conduct statistical analyses of three distinct foreign policy areas: military alliances, United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting, and economic sanctions. In the fourth area, trade, we find that both democracies and nondemocracies are more likely to experience foreign policy change when a new leader with a different supporting coalition comes to power.

Based on our findings, we conclude that foreign policy responds to domestic political interests. Even as the interests supporting leaders change, democracies' foreign policies are no less stable than those of nondemocracies and often exhibit greater consistency.

In conclusion, the study of foreign policy under new leadership offers valuable insights into the complex dynamics between political interests, leadership, and policy outcomes. By examining the case of democracies and nondemocracies, we demonstrate that foreign policy is not solely determined by external factors but also shaped by the internal dynamics of democratic systems.

Weight: 146g
Dimension: 151 x 228 x 10 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781009016957
Edition number: New ed