Dynamics of Public Opinion

The study investigates how American public opinion moves over time, considering three patterns of change: party-cue issues, issues dividing the public along non-partisan lines, and issues responding to cultural shifts.

\n Format: Paperback / softback
\n Length: 75 pages
\n Publication date: 11 November 2021
\n Publisher: Cambridge University Press
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A fundamental issue in political representation revolves around whether the government effectively responds to the needs and desires of the people. To delve into this inquiry, it is essential to gain insights into both the actions of the government and the perceptions held by the public. Our objective is to unravel a crucial question that serves as a stepping stone toward understanding the broader dynamics of American public opinion. We propose three distinct patterns of change over time in public opinion, contingent upon the nature of the issue at hand. Issues on which political parties frequently diverge provide clear partisan cues to the public, leading us to introduce a slight variation on the thermostatic theory proposed by Soroka and Wlezien (2010) and Wlezien (1995). This variation is referred to as our "implied thermostatic model." However, a smaller subset of issues divides the public along non-partisan lines, rendering partisan control of government irrelevant in determining public opinion. Lastly, we acknowledge the significance of a small but noteworthy category of issues that capture responses to cultural shifts.

A central question in political representation is whether government responds to the people.

To understand that, we need to know what the government is doing, and what the people think of it.

We seek to understand a key question necessary to answer those bigger questions: How does American public opinion move over time?

We posit three patterns of change over time in public opinion, depending on the type of issue.

Issues on which the two parties regularly disagree provide clear partisan cues to the public.

For these party-cue issues, we present a slight variation on the thermostatic theory from (Soroka and Wlezien (2010); Wlezien (1995)); our "implied thermostatic model."

A smaller number of issues divide the public along lines unrelated to partisanship, and so partisan control of government provides no relevant clue.

Finally, we note a small but important class of issues that capture responses to cultural shifts.

\n Weight: 134g\n
Dimension: 152 x 227 x 9 (mm)\n
ISBN-13: 9781108819114\n
Edition number: New ed\n