Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise

This book develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy and assesses the performance of three European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise, focusing on the UK, EU, and Germany's handling of the Arab uprisings, ISIS rise, and Russian annexation of Crimea. It identifies lessons to learn from European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

Format: Hardback
Length: 256 pages
Publication date: 31 October 2022
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press

This book presents a groundbreaking framework for conducting postmortems in the realm of anticipatory foreign policy, guided by a normative model of anticipatory intelligence. It stands as the first comprehensive assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in delivering estimative intelligence during an era of unexpected events. The comparative analysis delves into how the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Germany managed three significant surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It examines government intelligence assessments, diplomatic reporting, and expert open sources, as well as how organizational leaders received and interpreted these assessments. By expanding the scope beyond a mere comparison of intelligence versus policy failures, the book seeks to identify challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities. Drawing upon insights and chapters contributed by former senior officials, the book offers valuable lessons to learn from European polities in enhancing their ability to anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

Introduction:
The study of strategic surprises has gained increasing attention in recent years, as the world becomes increasingly complex and interconnected. These surprises, which can arise from a wide range of factors such as political, economic, or social developments, can have significant consequences for countries and their policymakers. In this context, the book under review presents a novel framework for conducting postmortems in the realm of anticipatory foreign policy. By drawing on a normative model of anticipatory intelligence, the book aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the performance of three leading European polities in delivering estimative intelligence during an era of unexpected events.

Comparative Analysis:
The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU, and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise of ISIS, and the Russian annexation of Crimea. These cases represent different challenges and contexts, but they all highlight the importance of anticipatory intelligence in shaping policy decisions. The book examines government intelligence assessments, diplomatic reporting, and expert open sources to assess the performance of these European polities in delivering estimative intelligence. It also considers how organizational leaders received and interpreted these assessments, and how they used them to inform their policy decisions.

Theoretical Developments:
The book goes beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities. It develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, drawing on insights and chapters provided by former senior officials. These theories explore the role of cognitive biases, information overload, and decision-making processes in shaping the perception and interpretation of information. The book also examines the importance of collaboration and communication in anticipating and responding to strategic surprises.

Lessons Learned:
Drawing on the insights and chapters provided by former senior officials, the book identifies lessons to learn from European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises. These lessons include the importance of building a robust and diverse intelligence community, investing in human capital and training, and promoting cross-agency collaboration. The book also emphasizes the need for policymakers to be open to new ideas and perspectives, and to be willing to challenge their assumptions and biases.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, this book presents a groundbreaking framework for conducting postmortems in the realm of anticipatory foreign policy. By drawing on a normative model of anticipatory intelligence, it provides a comprehensive analysis of the performance of three leading European polities in delivering estimative intelligence during an era of unexpected events. The comparative analysis highlights the challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities, and the theoretical developments offer valuable insights into the causes of strategic surprises. The lessons learned from European polities provide valuable guidance for policymakers seeking to enhance their ability to anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

Weight: 696g
Dimension: 162 x 241 x 28 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781399505512