Explaining Technology

A long-standing tradition explains technological change as recombination, and this Element develops a novel combinatorial model of technological change and tests it with 2,000 years of global GDP data and US patent data from 1835 to 2010. The model explains the pace of technological change, patent citations, and the increasing complexity of tools over time, showing that combining and modifying pre-existing goods to produce new goods generates the observed historical pattern of technological change.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 75 pages
Publication date: 31 August 2023
Publisher: Cambridge University Press

A rich tapestry of historical accounts weaves a compelling narrative that elucidates the phenomenon of technological change as a process of recombination. Within this tradition, this Element presents an innovative combinatorial model of technological change, which is then subjected to rigorous testing using a comprehensive dataset spanning 2,000 years of global GDP data and a comprehensive collection of US patents filed between 1835 and 2010. This model not only sheds light on the pace of technological change over the past two millennia but also provides insights into patent citations and the evolving complexity of tools over time.

The model reveals that the observed historical pattern of technological change is a result of the creative fusion and modification of pre-existing goods, leading to the generation of novel and innovative products. This process of recombination has been a driving force behind the remarkable surge in the number of goods that we have witnessed throughout history.

However, it is important to note that this process of recombination did not occur overnight. Rather, it unfolded gradually, with periods of stasis interspersed with sudden and dramatic bursts of super-exponential growth. The Industrial Revolution, in particular, can be viewed as a combinatorial explosion that was a long time in the making but ultimately inevitable once the process of technological change had begun two thousand years ago.

In essence, this Element's model offers a fresh perspective on the dynamics of technological change, highlighting the role of recombination and the gradual accumulation of knowledge and expertise over time. It provides valuable insights into the processes that have shaped our world and offer a framework for understanding the future trajectory of technological advancement.

ISBN-13: 9781009386258