Kit Yates
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To
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How to Expect the Unexpected is a Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023 that explains why predictions go wrong and how to spot phony forecasts. It was written by Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People.
Format: Hardback
Length: 448 pages
Publication date: 06 July 2023
Publisher: Quercus Publishing
A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023
Delightfully clear and vivid to read, this splendid book is a must-read for anyone interested in science and popular culture. Written by Philip Pullman, James O'Brien, and Dr. Chris van Tulleken, the book offers a fascinating exploration of a range of topics, from the likelihood of becoming a professional footballer to the prevention of nuclear war.
Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what the future holds for us. We do this on a personal level, to help us make decisions about our daily lives, such as whether to hang our laundry out to dry or whether it will rain. But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society, such as how to spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks.
Unfortunately, for as long as we have been making predictions, we have been getting them wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad, but the foibles of our own biology, the biases that ultimately make us human, can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.
How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct. With its engaging and informative style, this book is a must-read for anyone who wants to improve their ability to anticipate the unexpected and make better decisions in their personal and professional lives.
Weight: 684g
Dimension: 167 x 242 x 39 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781529408676
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