Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict

Sebastian Rosato argues that states lack the information to be convinced that their rivals mean them no harm, leading to competition for arms and allies and the potential for war. This argument has profound implications for U.S.-China relations, suggesting that the future of great power politics is likely to resemble its dismal past.

Format: Hardback
Length: 376 pages
Publication date: 01 June 2021
Publisher: Yale University Press

The future of great power politics is likely to resemble its dismal past due to several factors. Firstly, states that trust each other can live at peace, while those that mistrust each other are doomed to compete for arms and allies and may even go to war. This is because states routinely lack the kind of information they need to be convinced that their rivals mean them no harm. Even in cases that supposedly involved mutual trust, such as Germany and Russia in the Bismarck era, Britain and the United States during the great rapprochement, France and Germany, and Japan and the United States in the early interwar period, and the Soviet Union and the United States at the end of the Cold War, the protagonists mistrusted each other and struggled for advantage.

Secondly, the rise of populism and nationalism in many great power countries is causing a shift in the political landscape. Populists and nationalists often prioritize the interests of their own countries over those of their allies, which can lead to tensions and conflicts. For example, the United States' decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change has caused tensions with its European allies, who rely on the United States to help them meet their climate goals.

Thirdly, the increasing complexity of global challenges, such as terrorism, cybercrime, and pandemics, is making it difficult for great power countries to work together to address them. Each country is concerned with its own security and interests, which can lead to a lack of cooperation and a failure to address global challenges effectively.

Finally, the rise of China as a global power is causing a shift in the balance of power in the world. China is a rapidly developing economy with a strong military and a growing influence in global affairs. This has caused concerns among some great power countries, who fear that China's rise could lead to a resurgence of imperialism and a challenge to their own interests.

In conclusion, the future of great power politics is likely to resemble its dismal past due to factors such as lack of trust, the rise of populism and nationalism, the complexity of global challenges, and the rise of China as a global power. Great power countries need to work together to address these challenges and build a more stable and peaceful world.

Weight: 718g
Dimension: 242 x 165 x 29 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780300253023