Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
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- More about Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
Lost in a Gallup examines polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936, including the 2020 polling surprise. It encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 368 pages
Publication date: 20 February 2024
Publisher: University of California Press
This comprehensive update of a groundbreaking study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns delves into the persistent failure of pollsters to provide accurate assessments of the most crucial elections in American history. Lost in a Gallup: The Story of Polling Flops and Failures in Presidential Elections Since 1936 takes readers on a journey through a series of polling blunders and disappointments in presidential elections since 1936. It serves as a stark reminder that polls can indeed go wrong, as evidenced by the outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000, which serve as poignant examples of such failures.
In this updated edition, author W. Joseph Campbell delves deeper into the nuances of polling misfires, exploring the various factors that contribute to these errors. He highlights the instances where pollsters have anticipated tight elections only to witness landslides, as well as the instances where they have mistakenly identified the wrong winner in closer elections. Additionally, he sheds light on the misleading state polls that have thrown off expected national outcomes, emphasizing the potential for polling failure to ripple through media narratives.
One of the key messages conveyed in Lost in a Gallup is the importance of treating election polls with healthy skepticism. The book encourages readers to approach poll results with a critical eye, recognizing that they may not always reflect the true state of the electorate. It emphasizes the need for individuals to be informed and engaged in the political process, rather than relying solely on polls to shape their opinions and decisions.
Furthermore, Lost in a Gallup offers valuable insights into the challenges faced by pollsters in conducting accurate surveys. It explores the factors that can influence poll results, such as sample size, survey methodology, and the impact of political polarization on public opinion. The book also discusses the role of media coverage in shaping public perception of polls, emphasizing the need for journalists to be cautious in interpreting and reporting on poll data.
In conclusion, Lost in a Gallup is a must-read for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of polling and its impact on political outcomes. It provides a comprehensive and insightful examination of polling misfires and failures in presidential elections, offering valuable lessons for both voters and pollsters alike. By treating election polls with healthy skepticism and engaging in informed civic discourse, we can work towards creating a more informed and democratic society.
Weight: 502g
Dimension: 152 x 229 x 26 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780520397781
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