North Korea, Nuclear Risk-Taking, and the United States: Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un

Jihwan Hwang analyzes Pyongyangs nuclear policy changes over the last three decades, arguing that Pyongyang becomes either risk-acceptant or risk-averse toward the U.S. depending on the situation it faces. When Pyongyang perceived the status quo to be deteriorating, it chose a risk-acceptant of confrontation to restore the status quo. When Pyongyang perceived the situation to be improving, it chose a risk-averse engagement in the domain of gain. When Pyongyang perceived an extreme loss such as military confrontation against the United States, it would rather choose a risk-averse policy to avoid the catastrophic outcome of war.

Format: Hardback
Length: 216 pages
Publication date: 21 November 2023
Publisher: Lexington Books

Jihwan Hwang examines Pyongyang's nuclear policy changes over the past three decades under the leadership of Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un. He questions why a weaker North Korea would take the risk of confronting a much stronger U.S. with its nuclear weapons program, even escalating the crisis to the point of war. Later, he explores why North Korea changed its course of action during the crisis, even though the security environment remained largely unchanged. Hwang draws on the principles of prospect theory in international relations to argue that Pyongyang adopts either a risk-acceptant or risk-averse approach towards the U.S., depending on the situation it faces. When Pyongyang perceives the status quo as deteriorating, it frames its situation as a loss and chooses a risk-acceptant approach of confrontation to restore the status quo. Conversely, when Pyongyang perceives the situation as improving, it adopts a risk-averse engagement in the domain of gain. In the face of extreme loss, such as military confrontation with the United States, Pyongyang tends to choose a risk-averse policy to avoid the catastrophic outcome of war. Understanding the issues of risk is crucial in comprehending Pyongyang's nuclear policy decision-making.

Weight: 517g
Dimension: 236 x 157 x 25 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781793650269