Planning for Protraction: A Historically Informed Approach to Great-power War and Sino-US Competition

Washington is concerned about its ability to defeat China in a major conflict due to the deteriorating Sino-US relations. Iskander Rehman's book "The Long War: How Competitors Conquer and Settle Great Power Conflict" examines the factors that determine a competitor's long-term strategic performance, including military effectiveness, socio-economic power, alliance management, and grand strategy. The contemporary Sino-US rivalry is analyzed, highlighting its nuclear and cyber dimensions.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 200 pages
Publication date: 09 November 2023
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd

As Sino-US relations have deteriorated, concerns have grown in Washington over its ability to defeat China in a major conflict. A conflict between such peer competitors would likely become a protracted war of attrition drawing on all dimensions of national power, but this reality has yet to receive a sufficient degree of analytical attention.

In this Adelphi book, Iskander Rehman provides a historically informed and empirically grounded study of protracted great-power war, its core drivers and characteristics, and an examination of the elements that have most often determined a competitor's long-term strategic performance. Final victory in a protracted conflict, this book argues, rests on a combination of three core factors: a state's military effectiveness and adaptability, its socio-economic power and resiliency, and the soundness of its alliance management and grand strategy. A detailed analysis of the contemporary Sino-US rivalry assesses how both parties might fare in the event of a protracted war, while highlighting some of its key differentiating aspects – most notably its nuclear and cyber dimensions.

The book also explores the potential for miscalculation and misperception in a protracted conflict, which could lead to unintended consequences and escalate the conflict's scale and duration. It examines the role of international institutions and norms in shaping the behavior of states in a protracted conflict, and the challenges they face in maintaining stability and promoting peace.

Overall, this book offers a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the challenges and opportunities posed by protracted great-power war, providing valuable insights for policymakers and scholars alike.

Dimension: 234 x 156 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781032734774