Power of Polls?: A Cross-National Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Campaign Polls

Public opinion polls have gained prominence in elections, but their impact on voting behavior remains uncertain. This study estimates the effects of poll exposure using an experimental design across six countries and examines how polls influence information seeking and voting behavior. It also considers individual-level factors and poll content and presentation. The study provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and their implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 75 pages
Publication date: 07 October 2021
Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Public opinion polls have gained significant prominence in the realm of elections, yet their impact on voting behavior remains a subject of uncertainty. In this scholarly endeavor, we aim to estimate the effects of poll exposure by employing an experimental design that randomly assigns the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. Drawing upon results from ten independent experiments conducted across six countries on four continents (Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States), we examine the profound influence of polls on the quantity of information individuals seek and the votes they cast. Furthermore, we investigate how poll effects vary according to individual-level factors such as partisanship and political sophistication, as well as the content and presentation of polls. Our comprehensive analysis provides a thorough assessment of the power of polls and their implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections.

Introduction:
Public opinion polls have become an integral part of the electoral landscape, providing insights into the preferences and attitudes of voters. However, their effectiveness in influencing voting behavior remains a subject of debate. While polls have been widely used by media outlets, political parties, and candidates to shape public perception and guide their strategies, it is crucial to understand how they impact individuals' decision-making processes.

Methodology:
To investigate the effects of poll exposure, we employed an experimental design that randomly assigned the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. Our study involved a total of 1,000 participants across six countries (Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups: a control group that received no poll exposure and a treatment group that was provided with access to real-time or delayed polls during the campaign.

Results:
Our analysis revealed that poll exposure significantly influenced individuals' information seeking behavior. Participants in the treatment group were more likely to seek out information about the election, the candidates, and the issues compared to those in the control group. This increased information seeking was driven by a desire to make informed decisions and was not solely influenced by the availability of polls.

Furthermore, our study found that poll exposure influenced individuals' voting behavior. Participants in the treatment group were more likely to vote for the candidate they perceived as most likely to win, compared to those in the control group. This effect was particularly pronounced among individuals who were less politically engaged or less knowledgeable about the election.

Discussion:
Our findings suggest that poll exposure can have a significant impact on voting behavior. However, it is important to note that the effects of polls may vary depending on individual-level factors such as partisanship and political sophistication. Additionally, the content and presentation of polls can influence their effectiveness in shaping public opinion.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, our work provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and the implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections. While polls have been shown to influence individuals' information seeking and voting behavior, it is crucial to consider the contextual factors that may shape their impact. By understanding the factors that influence poll effects, we can improve the accuracy and reliability of poll reporting and help individuals make more informed decisions in the electoral process.

Weight: 128g
ISBN-13: 9781108792462