Predicting Disasters: Earthquakes, Scientists, and Uncertainty in Modern Japan

Japan is a place where powerful earthquakes have occurred more frequently and have caused more harm in the modern era than in all but a handful of other locations on the planet. In the twentieth century alone, earthquake disasters in Japan took almost as many lives as they had in all of the countrys recorded history up to that point. Predicting Disasters is the first English-language book to explore how scientists convinced policy makers and the public in postwar Japan that catastrophic earthquakes were coming, and the first to show why earthquake prediction has played such a central role in Japan's efforts to prepare for a dangerous future ever since.

Format: Hardback
Length: 368 pages
Publication date: 27 February 2024
Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press

Japan, a country known for its frequent and devastating earthquakes, has experienced more harm in the modern era than most other locations on the planet. In the twentieth century alone, earthquake disasters in Japan claimed nearly as many lives as the country's recorded history up to that point.

"Predicting Disasters: How Scientists Convinced Policy Makers and the Public in Postwar Japan That Catastrophic Earthquakes Were Coming, and Why Earthquake Prediction Has Played Such a Central Role in Japan's Efforts to Prepare for a Dangerous Future" is the first English-language book to delve into this topic. Authored by Kerry Smith, the book explores how scientists struggled to make large-scale earthquake disasters legible to the public and policy makers in postwar Japan, recognizing them as significant threats to the country's future and as phenomena that could be anticipated and prepared for.

Smith's book is significant because it sheds light on the historical context and struggles that shaped Japan's approach to earthquake prediction. During the twentieth century, scientists faced challenges in conveying the magnitude and potential consequences of earthquakes to the general public and policymakers. Earthquakes were often perceived as natural occurrences that could not be controlled or prevented. However, Smith argues that understanding these struggles is crucial for understanding how past events have influenced beliefs about Japan's possible futures, and how these beliefs shape the present.

Disasters, according to Smith, should be considered alongside more familiar topics of analysis in modern Japanese history, such as economic growth, political crises, and the legacies of war. These disasters play a significant role in helping us understand how the past has influenced beliefs about Japan's potential futures and how these beliefs shape the present. By exploring the historical context of earthquake prediction in Japan, "Predicting Disasters" makes relevant elements of the country's past more accessible to readers interested in the histories of disaster and scientific communities, as well as those who want to gain a better understanding of the risk and uncertainty surrounding natural phenomena.

In conclusion, Japan's history of frequent and devastating earthquakes has left a lasting impact on the country and the world. "Predicting Disasters: How Scientists Convinced Policy Makers and the Public in Postwar Japan That Catastrophic Earthquakes Were Coming, and Why Earthquake Prediction Has Played Such a Central Role in Japan's Efforts to Prepare for a Dangerous Future" provides valuable insights into the historical context and struggles that shaped Japan's approach to earthquake prediction. By exploring the past, the book helps us better understand how beliefs about the future shape the present and how we can prepare for future disasters.

Dimension: 229 x 152 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781512825374