Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

Adam Kucharski's book explores the history and methods of establishing fact from fiction, and how to convince others of the truth.
He looks at scientific progress, disinformation, and the importance of weighing up evidence in various contexts.

Format: Hardback
Length: 368 pages
Publication date: 20 March 2025
Publisher: Profile Books Ltd

The case for better evidence in post-evidence times
The Financial Times
Excellent
New Scientist
Profound and utterly absorbing
Chris Van Tulleken
How far would you go in your search for certainty? And once you get there, how do you convince others? From the medieval Islamic world to the recent pandemic, scientific progress has relied on different methods of establishing fact from fiction. Today, in the face of ever-increasing disinformation, how we prove things - to ourselves and others - has never felt more urgent. But there is far more to proof than axioms, theories, and scientific laws: when demonstrating that an experimental medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone's guilt, or deciding whether to trust a new type of financial transaction, weighing up evidence is rarely simple. Bestselling author, statistician, and epidemiologist Adam Kucharski ranges across science, politics, philosophy, and economics to explore how truth emerges - and why it falters.
Adam Kucharski's book, "The Case for Better Evidence in Post-Evidence Times," explores the history of scientific progress and the challenges of establishing fact from fiction in the modern world. He argues that the methods used to prove things have evolved over time, and that we need to be more rigorous in our approach to evidence. Kucharski's book covers a wide range of topics, including the medieval Islamic world, the recent pandemic, and the role of evidence in politics, philosophy, and economics.
One of the key themes of Kucharski's book is the importance of evidence-based decision-making. He argues that decisions made without evidence are often based on intuition, bias, or emotion, and that this can lead to poor outcomes. For example, in the case of the recent pandemic, decisions made by governments and public health officials were based on limited evidence, and this led to a global health crisis that has claimed millions of lives. Kucharski argues that we need to be more transparent about the evidence we use to make decisions, and that we need to be willing to change our minds based on new evidence.
Another theme of Kucharski's book is the role of science in society. He argues that science has the power to improve our lives, but that it can also be used to harm us. For example, the use of genetic engineering and artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize medicine, but it also raises ethical concerns. Kucharski argues that we need to be more careful about the use of these technologies and that we need to ensure that they are used for the benefit of society as a whole.
Kucharski's book is well-written and accessible, and it provides a lot of interesting insights into the history of scientific progress and the challenges of establishing fact from fiction in the modern world. However, some critics have argued that Kucharski's book is too focused on the negative aspects of evidence-based decision-making, and that it does not provide enough solutions to the problems that we face.
One of the criticisms of Kucharski's book is that he does not provide enough solutions to the problems that we face. He argues that we need to be more rigorous in our approach to evidence, but he does not provide any concrete examples of how we can achieve this. Some critics have suggested that we need to invest more money in research and development, and that we need to create more transparent and accountable systems for the use of evidence.
Another criticism of Kucharski's book is that he does not address the issue of bias in evidence-based decision-making. Bias can occur in many different ways, and it can lead to poor decisions. Kucharski argues that we need to be more aware of our biases and that we need to take steps to mitigate them. However, some critics have argued that Kucharski's book does not provide enough guidance on how to do this.
Despite these criticisms, Kucharski's book is a valuable contribution to the field of evidence-based decision-making. It provides a lot of interesting insights into the history of scientific progress and the challenges of establishing fact from fiction in the modern world. It is well-written and accessible, and it provides a lot of food for thought. If you are interested in the topic of evidence-based decision-making, I would recommend reading this book.
In conclusion, Adam Kucharski's book, "The Case for Better Evidence in Post-Evidence Times," explores the history of scientific progress and the challenges of establishing fact from fiction in the modern world. He argues that the methods used to prove things have evolved over time, and that we need to be more rigorous in our approach to evidence. Kucharski's book covers a wide range of topics, including the medieval Islamic world, the recent pandemic, and the role of evidence in politics, philosophy, and economics. While some critics have argued that Kucharski's book is too focused on the negative aspects of evidence-based decision-making, it is a valuable contribution to the field. If you are interested in the topic of evidence-based decision-making, I would recommend reading this book.

Weight: 576g
Dimension: 242 x 162 x 34 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781788169080
Edition number: Main