Quality Control: Experiments on the Microfoundations of Retrospective Voting

Retrospective voting is when individuals judge governments based on how the world unfolds during their time in office. Past experimental studies have short-circuited this process, but a new framework developed in this Element reveals that respondents who are quick to appraise and make reasonable use of information cues regularly employ benchmarking strategies to manage complex, variable, and even confounded streams of performance information. This highlights the importance of centering the integration-appraisal challenge in both theoretical models and experimental designs.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 75 pages
Publication date: 31 August 2023
Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Traditional models of voting behavior portray individuals as evaluating governments based on their performance during their tenure in office. This phenomenon, known as retrospective voting, necessitates individuals to integrate and assess a continuous stream of performance information over time. However, past experimental studies have often bypassed this crucial integration-appraisal process. In this Element, we present a novel framework for studying retrospective voting, supported by eleven experiments. Surprisingly, when we allow integration and appraisal to unfold freely, we find limited support for models of blind retrospection. While we observe a clear recency bias, we observe respondents who are adept at appraising and utilizing information cues. Importantly, they consistently employ benchmarking strategies to navigate complex, variable, and even confounded streams of performance information. The findings underscore the significance of addressing the integration-appraisal challenge in both theoretical models and experimental designs and provide initial insights into the cognitive underpinnings of retrospective voting.

Traditional models of voting behavior depict individuals as evaluating governments based on their performance during their tenure in office. This phenomenon, known as retrospective voting, necessitates individuals to integrate and assess a continuous stream of performance information over time. However, past experimental studies have often bypassed this crucial integration-appraisal process. In this Element, we present a novel framework for studying retrospective voting, supported by eleven experiments. Surprisingly, when we allow integration and appraisal to unfold freely, we find limited support for models of blind retrospection. While we observe a clear recency bias, we observe respondents who are adept at appraising and utilizing information cues. Importantly, they consistently employ benchmarking strategies to navigate complex, variable, and even confounded streams of performance information. The findings underscore the significance of addressing the integration-appraisal challenge in both theoretical models and experimental designs and provide initial insights into the cognitive underpinnings of retrospective voting.

Weight: 144g
ISBN-13: 9781009357036