Repeated Crisis Exposure, Euroskepticism & Political Behavior: An Econometric Analysis for European Countries

The study analyzes how repeated crisis exposure within a short period of time can deepen existing Euroskepticism in Europe. It finds that a single crisis exposure increases Euroskepticism, but the temporal distance between the crises matters. Additionally, a hysteresis-like effect occurs, with Euroskepticism levels not returning to their pre-crisis level after the crisis ends. The study aims to provide recommendations on how to act in the future, especially in the context of the ongoing attack on (Western) democracy.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 74 pages
Publication date: 19 October 2022
Publisher: Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. KG

The past decade in Europe has been marked by significant challenges, including the euro crisis, migration crisis, and corona crisis. These crises have prompted scholars to investigate how citizens respond to such crises in their voting behavior. In this political economy analysis, we aim to examine the research gap regarding the extent to which repeated exposure to crises within a short period can deepen existing Euroskepticism.

Euroskepticism is defined as an index that captures individual identification as European, views on the EU, and perceived benefits of EU membership. To analyze this phenomenon, we utilize survey results from the Eurobarometer, conducted in all 28 EU member states, including the United Kingdom. These survey results are combined with macroeconomic data to employ modern econometric methods, such as bootstrapping and entropy balancing, to ensure conservative estimates.

Our findings indicate that a single crisis exposure can increase existing Euroskepticism. However, the temporal distance between the crises plays a crucial role in determining its impact. The immediate aftermath of a crisis tends to have a more significant effect on public opinion, while the long-term consequences diminish with the passage of time. Moreover, we observe a hysteresis-like effect, where the level of Euroskepticism does not return to its pre-crisis level immediately after the crisis ends.

This research is particularly relevant in today's context, when (Western) democracy faces numerous threats. By expanding our understanding of the influence of crises on political behavior, we aim to provide recommendations for future actions. It is essential to develop strategies that can mitigate the negative impacts of crises and strengthen the resilience of democratic systems.

In conclusion, the past decade in Europe has been characterized by crises that have significantly shaped public opinion and political behavior. This analysis highlights the need to understand the dynamics of Euroskepticism and its relationship with crisis exposure. By analyzing these factors, we can develop more effective strategies to address future challenges and strengthen democratic resilience.

Weight: 131g
Dimension: 210 x 148 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9783658392666
Edition number: 1st ed. 2022