Rumbles of Thunder: Power Shifts and the Danger of Sino-American War

Power shifts between established hegemon and rising upstart can lead to war, but this proposition does not hold true for Sino-American relations today. Steve Chan examines international relations theories and popular narratives that suggest an elevated risk of confrontation between the two powers, but he demonstrates that power shifts do not preordain violent outcomes, and domestic politics, international political economy, and the choices of individual leaders are all crucial to understanding why wars happen. Chan cautions that Taiwan remains a flashpoint for a possible Sino-American conflict.

Format: Hardback
Length: 336 pages
Publication date: 27 December 2022
Publisher: Columbia University Press

The notion that shifts in power dynamics between established hegemons and rising upstarts can lead to war is widely accepted. In the context of Sino-American relations, this proposition holds significant importance. Steve Chan, in his examination of various international relations theories and popular narratives, explores the heightened risk of confrontation between these two powers. He delves into the recent deterioration in Sino-American relations, assessing whether certain factors that can elevate or lower international tension apply to the current situation. Chan's analysis demonstrates that power shifts alone do not necessarily determine the outcome of conflicts, nor do their absence guarantee peace. He critiques overly mechanistic frameworks that suggest that wars are solely driven by power imbalances. Instead, Chan emphasizes the crucial role of domestic politics, international political economy, and the decisions made by individual leaders in shaping the course of conflicts.

In his exploration of Sino-American relations, Chan challenges the notion of a "rising China" catching up to and potentially surpassing the United States. He argues that American structural advantages will persist for some time, rendering claims of a imminent Chinese hegemony alarmist. Contrary to prevailing narratives, Chan suggests that China does not exhibit revisionist tendencies and is not actively seeking to overturn the international order. On the other hand, the United States, rather than defending the international system, has often undermined it. Chan cautions, however, that Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint for a Sino-American conflict.

Rumbles of Thunder: The Coming War Between the United States and China, authored by Steve Chan, combines expertise in international relations theory with a keen political acumen. The book challenges conventional wisdom on the likelihood of war between these two powers. Chan's analysis provides a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the complex dynamics shaping Sino-American relations, offering valuable insights into the factors that could contribute to conflict or peace. By examining the historical context, geopolitical considerations, and domestic politics of both nations, Chan sheds light on the challenges and opportunities facing the United States and China in the 2020s and beyond.

In conclusion, the proposition that shifts in power between established hegemons and rising upstarts can lead to war holds true for Sino-American relations. Steve Chan's examination of international relations theories and popular narratives highlights the heightened risk of confrontation between these two powers. Chan's analysis demonstrates that power shifts alone do not determine the outcome of conflicts, and the choices made by individual leaders, domestic politics, international political economy, and geopolitical factors all play crucial roles in shaping the course of Sino-American relations. Rumbles of Thunder: The Coming War Between the United States and China provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics shaping these two nations' relations and challenges conventional wisdom on the likelihood of war. By examining the historical context, geopolitical considerations, and domestic politics, Chan offers a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing the United States and China in the 2020s and beyond.

Weight: 612g
Dimension: 159 x 237 x 24 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780231208444