Scenario Thinking: A Historical Evolution of Strategic Foresight

Scenario thinking is an essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects, with a long history dating back to ancient civilizations. It has evolved significantly since ancient times, with the French and Anglo-American schools of thought leading the way. Archival research has uncovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy. It is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 75 pages
Publication date: 04 October 2018
Publisher: Cambridge University Press

This Element seamlessly integrates established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, contextualizing scenario thinking within the broader human endeavor of grappling with future uncertainties. A comprehensive study of ancient civilizations reveals that scenario thinking is not a modern concept, but has undergone significant evolution since ancient times. By divorcing scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated to become the critical ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical narrative continues, focusing on the evolution of modern scenario planning through the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, employing the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has unearthed early contributions in the UK around the development and utilization of scenario thinking in public policy, which have been overlooked in many mainstream histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged, and the argument that it serves as a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making more informed strategic decisions is refined.

Introduction:
Scenario thinking has gained increasing prominence in recent years as organizations seek to navigate the complex and uncertain landscape of the 21st century. While scenario planning has been a staple of strategic management for decades, this Element takes it to the next level by incorporating cognitive reasoning into the process. By understanding how individuals think and make decisions, scenario planners can create more realistic and effective scenarios that can help organizations prepare for a range of potential futures.

The Evolution of Scenario Thinking:
A study of ancient civilizations reveals that scenario thinking has a long and rich history. For example, ancient Greek philosophers such as Plato and Aristotle were known for their use of scenarios to explore different possibilities and outcomes. However, the modern concept of scenario thinking as a tool for strategic management emerged in the mid-20th century.

The French and Anglo-American Schools of Thought:
The French school of thought, led by the likes of Jean Baudrillard and Michel Maffesoli, emphasized the role of imagination and creativity in scenario thinking. They believed that scenario planning should be a collaborative and interdisciplinary process that involves a wide range of stakeholders. On the other hand, the Anglo-American school of thought, led by the likes of Herman Kahn and Peter Schwartz, focused more on the analytical and quantitative aspects of scenario thinking. They believed that scenario planning should be based on rigorous research and data analysis.

Intuitive Logics Methodology:
The intuitive logics methodology is a framework that combines the best of both the French and Anglo-American schools of thought. It emphasizes the importance of imagination and creativity in scenario thinking while also incorporating rigorous research and data analysis. This methodology has been widely used in scenario planning projects around the world.

Early Contributions in the UK:
Archival research has revealed that early contributions to scenario thinking in the UK were made around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy. However, these contributions have been overlooked in many received histories. For example, the UK government's Office for National Statistics (ONS) has been using scenario thinking to inform policy decisions for over 30 years.

The Usefulness of Scenario Thinking for Strategic Management:
Scenario thinking is particularly useful for strategic management because it helps organizations to prepare for a range of potential futures. By creating realistic and detailed scenarios, organizations can identify potential risks and opportunities and develop strategies to mitigate them or capitalize on them. Scenario thinking also helps organizations to develop a sense of resilience and adaptability, which are essential in the face of uncertainty.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, this Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, contextualizing scenario thinking within the broader human endeavor of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilizations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focusing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which have been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.

Weight: 160g
Dimension: 175 x 227 x 9 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781108469005