Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk

This book is a valuable resource for anyone who wants to improve their macroeconomic judgment, offering a framework to better understand growth, the financial sector, and the key trends shaping the global economy. It challenges conventional model-based thinking and provides a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment through incisive analysis and structural narratives. It empowers readers with the skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, the financial system, and the geopolitical arena, and offers a rational optimism for navigating the global economy.

Format: Hardback
Length: 320 pages
Publication date: 09 July 2024
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press

An essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk.

The shocks and crises of recent years—pandemic,recession,inflation,war—have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting,pervasive doomsaying,and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral—or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps,but so are true structural changes that go undetected.

How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions? In this perspective-shifting book,BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking,they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks,historical context,and structural narratives—what they call economic eclecticism—the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy,the financial system,and the geopolitical arena.

Moreover,the authors more nuanced approach reveals that the all-too-common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often false alarms themselves,while the fundamental strengths of our current era of tightness become visible. With rational optimism rather than glo.

Dimension: 235 x 155 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781647825409