John F. MacLeod,David P.Farrington
Testing Criminal Career Theories in British and American Longitudinal Studies
Testing Criminal Career Theories in British and American Longitudinal Studies
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Excellent- More about Testing Criminal Career Theories in British and American Longitudinal Studies
Criminological theories are not scientific because they do not yield exact quantitative predictions of criminal career features. This element aims to make progress towards more scientific criminological theories by describing a simple theory based on measures of the probability of reoffending and the frequency of offending. Three offender categories are identified: high risk/high rate, high risk/low rate, and low risk/low rate, and it is demonstrated that this theory accurately predicts key criminal career features in three datasets. The theory is then extended by identifying early risk factors that predict the three categories. Criminological theorists are encouraged to replicate and build on this research to develop scientific theories that yield quantitative predictions.
Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 75 pages
Publication date: 07 July 2022
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Criminological theories often fall short of being truly scientific due to their inability to provide precise quantitative predictions regarding criminal career features, such as the prevalence and frequency of offending at different ages. This element seeks to make strides towards developing more scientific criminological theories. A straightforward theory is presented, which is grounded in measures of the likelihood of reoffending and the frequency of offending. Three distinct offender categories are identified: high risk/high rate, high risk/low rate, and low risk/low rate. It is demonstrated that this theory accurately forecasts key criminal career features in three datasets: the Offenders Index (national data) in England, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) and the Pittsburgh Youth Study (PYS) in America. Furthermore, the theory is extended in the CSDD and PYS by identifying early risk factors that predict these three categories. We encourage criminological theorists to replicate and build upon our research to cultivate scientific theories that yield quantitative predictions.
Weight: 129g
ISBN-13: 9781009018067
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