The Future of Antarctica: Scenarios from Classical Geopolitics

The geopolitical future of Antarctica is a growing concern, and this book explores how we can anticipate, prepare for, and potentially shape that future. The Antarctic Treaty System has been resilient and successful, but our ability to make accurate predictions about it reduces rapidly due to political and biophysical complexity, uncertainty, and the passage of time. Scenarios are useful planning tools for considering futures beyond the limits of standard prediction, and this book illustrates a pragmatic, nine-step scenario development process using the topical issue of military activities in Antarctica. It seeks to rediscover the importance of a classical (primarily state-centric) lens on Antarctic geopolitics.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 199 pages
Publication date: 05 December 2022
Publisher: Springer Verlag, Singapore

As the competition for global dominance intensifies, concerns about Antarctica's geopolitical future are on the rise. This comprehensive book delves into the question of how we can anticipate, prepare for, and potentially shape that future. With its 60th anniversary approaching, the Antarctic Treaty System has demonstrated resilience and success in governing the Antarctic region. However, as political and biophysical complexity, uncertainty, and time pass, our ability to make accurate predictions about the system's future rapidly diminishes. This poses a critical risk for organizations making long-range decisions about their policies, strategies, and investments in the frozen south.

Scenarios, as powerful planning tools, offer a way to explore futures beyond the limitations of standard prediction. This book explores how a multi-disciplinary approach, drawing from classical geopolitics, can be systematically applied to create plausible, rigorous, and robust scenarios concerning Antarctic futures. By employing a pragmatic nine-step scenario development process, the authors illustrate how this approach can be applied to the topical issue of military activities in Antarctica. Throughout the book, they offer suggestions to augment current theory and practice of geopolitical scenario planning.

The primary objective of this book is to reclaim the significance of a classical (primarily state-centric) lens on Antarctic geopolitics, which has been overshadowed by more critical perspectives in recent decades. It is written for anyone with an interest in the rigorous assessment of geopolitical futures, whether in Antarctica or beyond. By examining the challenges and opportunities posed by the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape in Antarctica, this book provides valuable insights and recommendations for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders alike.

Weight: 349g
Dimension: 235 x 155 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9789811670978
Edition number: 1st ed. 2022