The Future of Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council States: Evidence-Based Policy Analysis

The GCC countries own 30% of the world's proven oil reserves, but they face serious challenges due to declining global demand and lower oil prices. This book provides a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis with evidence-based policy recommendations for GCC governments to address debt sustainability, optimal fiscal policies, and structural issues. It relies on extensive econometric analyses and considers the impact of climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic on oil supply and demand. The book is intended for scholars, researchers, policymakers, and think tanks.

Format: Hardback
Length: 168 pages
Publication date: 22 July 2022
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries hold a significant portion of the world's proven oil reserves, making oil a crucial source of income for these nations. However, the GCC faces numerous challenges. The global demand for oil is projected to decline, and the average long-run oil price may fall below its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis that offers evidence-based and forward-looking policy recommendations for GCC governments.

The book begins by analyzing historical data to understand the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. It then presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book delves into debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies, examining government spending and taxation. Additionally, it analyzes structural issues, including savings and productivity, from an institutional perspective, considering education, the labor market, pension funds, and other factors that significantly impact economic performance.

The book is comprehensive and thorough, relying on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author employs both theoretical model calibration and estimation to facilitate projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. Furthermore, the book assesses the future of the GCC economies if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to adversely affect oil supply and demand and the oil price, considering their current policies and institutions.

This book will appeal to scholars and researchers of economics and finance, as well as policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes, and think tanks. The insights and recommendations provided in this book will help GCC governments navigate the complex economic landscape and make informed decisions for the future.

Weight: 490g
Dimension: 234 x 156 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781032264332