The Future of Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council States: Evidence-Based Policy Analysis

The GCC countries own 30% of the world's proven oil reserves, but they face serious challenges due to declining global demand and lower oil prices. This book provides a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis with evidence-based and future-facing policy recommendations for GCC governments. It analyzes historical data, presents dynamic stochastic projections, examines debt sustainability, optimal fiscal policies, and structural issues. The book relies on extensive econometric analyses and assesses the future of the GCC economies under different policy scenarios. It will interest scholars, researchers, policymakers, and think tanks.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 168 pages
Publication date: 29 January 2024
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries hold a significant portion of the world's proven oil reserves, making oil a crucial source of income for these nations. However, the GCC faces numerous challenges. The global demand for oil is projected to decline, and the average long-run oil price may fall below its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis that offers evidence-based and forward-looking policy recommendations for GCC governments.

The book begins by analyzing historical data to understand the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. It then presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book delves into debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies, including government spending and taxation. It also examines structural issues such as savings and productivity, considering education, the labor market, pension funds, and other factors that significantly impact economic performance.

The book is comprehensive and thorough, relying on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author employs both theoretical model calibration and estimation to facilitate projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. Additionally, the book assesses the future of the GCC economies if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to adversely affect oil supply and demand, as well as the oil price, considering their current policies and institutions.

This book will appeal to scholars and researchers of economics and finance, as well as policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes, and think tanks. The insights and recommendations provided in this book will help GCC governments navigate the complex economic landscape and make informed decisions for the future.

Weight: 453g
Dimension: 234 x 156 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781032264356