The Plausibility of Future Scenarios - Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning

Plausibility is an essential aspect of scenario planning, but its epistemological and empirical foundations need to be explored. Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study to better understand it. A conceptual map provides indicators for plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 264 pages
Publication date: 20 December 2021
Publisher: Transcript Verlag

Despite the widespread use of scenario planning, its epistemological and empirical foundations have yet to be thoroughly explored in previous research. In an effort to address this gap, Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele provides an interdisciplinary perspective, drawing upon approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory, and linguistics. She conducts an experimental study to test key hypotheses and presents a conceptual map that outlines indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments differ across scenario methods. This research aims to enhance the understanding of researchers and practitioners regarding the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.

Introduction:
Scenario planning is a widely adopted strategy used in various fields, including business, government, and healthcare, to explore and prepare for potential future scenarios. The success of scenario planning relies heavily on the plausibility of the scenarios developed. Plausibility refers to the extent to which a scenario is believable, realistic, and consistent with existing knowledge and evidence.

Epistemological Foundations:
The epistemological foundations of scenario planning have received limited attention in the literature. While the concept of plausibility is widely recognized, its precise definition and measurement remain elusive. Previous research has explored various approaches to defining plausibility, such as coherence, consistency, and realism, but these definitions often lack a clear theoretical framework and empirical validation.

Interdisciplinary Perspective:
To address the lack of epistemological foundations, Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective by drawing upon diverse fields such as philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory, and linguistics. This approach allows for a comprehensive understanding of plausibility and its assessment.

Approaches from Philosophy of Sciences:
Schmidt-Scheele incorporates insights from philosophy of sciences to explore the epistemological foundations of scenario planning. She examines the concept of scientific knowledge and its relationship to scenario development. She also discusses the role of evidence in supporting or refuting scenarios and the importance of transparency and reproducibility in scenario construction.

Cognitive Psychology:
Cognitive psychology plays a crucial role in understanding how individuals assess the plausibility of scenarios. Schmidt-Scheele examines the cognitive processes involved in scenario evaluation, such as attention, memory, and decision-making. She explores how individuals perceive information, interpret evidence, and make judgments about the likelihood of different scenarios.

Narrative Theory:
Narrative theory provides a framework for analyzing the structure and content of scenarios. Schmidt-Scheele examines how narratives shape individuals' perceptions and beliefs about the world and how they influence the plausibility of scenarios. She explores how narratives can create emotional connections and evoke specific responses, which in turn affect the assessment of plausibility.

Linguistics:
Linguistics contributes to the understanding of plausibility by examining the language used in scenario descriptions. Schmidt-Scheele explores how language choices can influence the interpretation and assessment of scenarios. She examines how language can convey information, create mental images, and evoke emotions, which in turn affect the plausibility of scenarios.

Experimental Study:
To test the hypotheses and explore the assessment of plausibility, Schmidt-Scheele conducts an experimental study. She develops and presents a set of scenarios to a group of participants and measures their perceptions of plausibility using various methods. The study aims to identify the factors that influence the assessment of plausibility and to provide insights into how assessments can be improved.

Conceptual Map:
The conceptual map presented by Schmidt-Scheele outlines indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. The map identifies key factors that contribute to the believability and realism of scenarios, such as the consistency of information, the coherence of storylines, and the alignment with existing knowledge. It also highlights the differences in assessment methods, such as qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and expert judgment.

Implications for Researchers and Practitioners:
The findings of Schmidt-Scheele's research have significant implications for researchers and practitioners in scenario planning. By better understanding the epistemological and empirical foundations of plausibility, researchers can develop more robust and reliable scenario methods. Practitioners can use the conceptual map to guide their scenario development process and improve the assessment of plausibility by incorporating the identified indicators into their methodology.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, the epistemological and empirical foundations of scenario planning remain unexplored in previous research. Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele's interdisciplinary perspective offers a valuable contribution by drawing upon diverse fields to explore the concept of plausibility and its assessment. The experimental study provides insights into the factors that influence the assessment of plausibility and highlights the importance of incorporating these factors into scenario development. By better understanding the implications of plausibility, researchers and practitioners can enhance the effectiveness and reliability of scenario planning in addressing complex challenges and making informed decisions.

Weight: 420g
Dimension: 148 x 224 x 20 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9783837653199