Toppling Foreign Governments: The Logic of Regime Change

The US launched a regime-change attempt in 2011 against Libya's Muammar Qaddafi, who had little hope of defeating the forces stacked against him. The history of foreign-imposed regime change is replete with leaders like Qaddafi, overthrown after wars they seemed unlikely to win. Melissa Willard-Foster explores why stronger nations overthrow governments when they could attain their aims at the bargaining table. She identifies a central cause—the targeted leader's domestic political vulnerability—that not only gives the leader motive to resist a stronger nation's demands, making a bargain more difficult to attain, but also gives the stronger nation reason to believe that regime change will be comparatively cheap.

Format: Hardback
Length: 344 pages
Publication date: 11 January 2019
Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press

The United States initiated its third regime-change attempt within a decade in 2011. Similar to its previous targets, Libya's Muammar Qaddafi held minimal prospects of defeating the overwhelming forces arrayed against him. He seemingly acknowledged this when he called for a cease-fire shortly after the intervention commenced. However, by that point, the United States had already decided that ousting him was a preferable course of action than engaging in negotiations, thus supporting his opposition. The history of foreign-imposed regime change is rife with leaders like Qaddafi, who were deposed despite initially appearing unlikely to win their wars. From the British overthrow of Afghanistan's Sher Ali in 1878 to the Soviet overthrow of Hungary's Imre Nagy in 1956, regime change has been imposed on the weak and the friendless.

In her book, Toppling Foreign Governments, Melissa Willard-Foster delves into the intriguing question of why stronger nations opt for regime change instead of pursuing negotiations to achieve their objectives. She identifies a fundamental factor—the domestic political vulnerability of the targeted leader—that not only provides the leader with a motive to resist the demands of a stronger nation, making a compromise more challenging, but also gives the stronger nation reason to believe that regime change will be relatively cost-effective. As long as the targeted leader's domestic opposition is willing to align with the foreign power, the latter is likely to conclude that ousting the leader is more cost-effective than engaging in negotiations.

Willard-Foster conducts a comprehensive analysis of 133 instances of regime change, encompassing a wide range of strategies, from covert operations to major military invasions, spanning over two hundred years. Additionally, she conducts three in-depth case studies that reinforce her argument that domestically and militarily weak leaders are more costly to coerce than overthrow, as long as they remain ubiquitous. This suggests that foreign-imposed regime change remains a viable option for stronger nations seeking to influence and alter the political landscape of weaker countries.

Weight: 700g
Dimension: 164 x 238 x 27 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780812251043