Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing

Elections are random events, and understanding them requires statistics. This book explores the topic from two perspectives: predicting election outcomes using opinion polls and testing election outcomes using government-reported data. It is written for individuals with a brief introduction to statistics and includes vignettes, cues, and end-of-chapter problems to enhance the learning experience. The author, Ole J. Forsberg, holds PhDs in political science and statistics and teaches mathematics and statistics at Knox College.

\n Format: Paperback / softback
\n Length: 209 pages
\n Publication date: 29 September 2020
\n Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd
\n

Elections, a complex and enigmatic phenomenon, are characterized by their inherent randomness. From the individual decision to cast a ballot to the collective choice of a candidate, and even the discretion of election authorities in determining the count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections often remain shrouded in uncertainty until the very day of the vote, or even beyond.

In order to gain a deeper understanding of this randomness, Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing delves into the topic from two distinct perspectives. Firstly, it explores the art of predicting election outcomes through opinion polls, providing a comprehensive guide for those with a basic understanding of statistics. Written in a clear and accessible manner, this book takes readers on a statistical journey, from the methodology employed in poll taking to the potential limitations and applications of these surveys in estimating current popular opinion.

Once a foundation in the election process is established, the book turns its attention to testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto standard for demonstrating government legitimacy, it is important to acknowledge that these electoral processes may conceal a less-than-desirable aspect: the government's potential involvement in ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes features designed to enhance the reader's experience, including vignettes of past elections, maps to contextualize the material, and in-chapter cues to guide readers through the technical aspects, allowing them to focus on areas of interest.

Furthermore, the book includes end-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend the concepts covered in each chapter, fostering a deeper understanding of the subject matter. Additionally, numerous opportunities are provided to leverage the power of the R statistical environment, along with the enclosed election data files, to explore and analyze the data further, catering to a diverse audience with varying levels of mathematical expertise.

In essence, this text serves as a valuable resource for those seeking a mathematical approach to understanding elections, as well as for those who appreciate a good read and a deeper comprehension of the democratic process. By exploring the randomness inherent in elections through the lens of statistics, this book offers a comprehensive and insightful exploration of a critical aspect of contemporary politics.

\n Weight: 358g\n
Dimension: 155 x 233 x 23 (mm)\n
ISBN-13: 9780367895358\n \n