Violence Pendulum: Tactical Change in Islamist Groups in Egypt and Indonesia

The article discusses the theory of tactical change in armed groups,tracing the historical evolution of four Islamist groups in Egypt,Indonesia,and how they shift between nonviolence and violence in response to various factors such as perceived need for activism,cost of violent resistance,and internal or external pressures.

Format: Hardback
Length: 280 pages
Publication date: 06 October 2020
Publisher: Oxford University Press Inc

The question of whether the Islamic State (IS) will ever renounce violence is a complex and challenging one, particularly in the current political climate. However, it is important to remember that unexpected shifts in behavior and ideology have occurred in the past, even among terrorist groups.

At the height of a terrorist campaign against tourists in Egypt during the 1990s, the group responsible for the attacks surprisingly issued and adhered to a nonviolence initiative. This unexpected turn of events led to a deeper understanding of what drives groups to shift between nonviolence and violence.

What factors influence a group's decision to renounce violence permanently or temporarily? Ioana Emy Matesan, in her book "The Violence Pendulum," offers a theory of tactical change that seeks to answer these questions. Matesan's analysis traces the historical evolution of four Islamist groups: the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Gama a al-Islamiyya in Egypt, and Darul Islam and Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia. Through a comprehensive examination of archival materials, interviews, and reports, Matesan focuses on turning points in each organization that led to changes in their tactics.

One of the key findings of Matesan's analysis is that Islamist groups alter their tactics in response to a perceived need for activism, shifts in the cost of violent versus nonviolent resistance, and internal or external pressures on the organization. Groups turn to violence when grievances escalate, violent resistance is feasible and publicly tolerated, and there are internal or external pressures to act. In turn, groups renounce armed action when violence costs them too much, disillusionment eclipses the perceived need for continued activism, and leaders are willing to rethink the tactics and strategies of the group.

Matesan's theory of tactical change provides valuable insights into the factors that influence escalation and de-escalation in armed groups. By uncovering the reasons for escalation and de-escalation across a range of political environments, The Violence Pendulum reshapes our understanding of how decisions are made and how nonviolence can be achieved in armed conflicts.

While the question of whether the Islamic State will ever renounce violence remains uncertain, it is important to recognize that such shifts in behavior and ideology are possible. By studying the experiences of other groups and applying the lessons learned from Matesan's analysis, we can work towards achieving a more peaceful and stable world.

Weight: 562g
Dimension: 164 x 242 x 26 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780197510087