War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics

Jeffrey A. Friedman's book "War and Chance" argues that foreign policy officials often avoid assessing uncertainty, undermining high-stakes decision-making. He offers a practical approach to assessing uncertainty that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practical, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. This contradicts skepticism about probabilistic reasoning in international politics and provides new foundations for understanding foreign policy discourse.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 240 pages
Publication date: 20 October 2021
Publisher: Oxford University Press Inc

International politics is characterized by a profound sense of uncertainty, which permeates every major decision that is made. However, while there may be disagreements about the specifics of this uncertainty, there is generally a shared recognition that it presents a significant challenge to policymakers. Attempts to predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the myriad other risks that shape foreign policy choices are often futile, as no one can reliably anticipate the future with certainty. As a result, many scholars and practitioners argue that it is best to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts, as debating uncertain judgments is a waste of time that will often prove to be incorrect.

In his book "War and Chance," Jeffrey A. Friedman challenges this notion and argues that foreign policy officials often avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, which undermines the effectiveness of high-stakes decision-making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, Friedman explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and, in some cases, logically necessary for making sound choices.

One of the key insights of "War and Chance" is that probabilistic reasoning can be a valuable tool for assessing uncertainty in international politics. Friedman argues that foreign policy analysts can use probabilistic models to estimate the likelihood of different outcomes and to assess the risks and benefits of different policy options. By incorporating probabilistic reasoning into their analysis, foreign policy analysts can make more informed decisions that are less likely to be influenced by biases or emotions.

Another important aspect of "War and Chance" is that it provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse: the role of probability in decision-making. Many skeptics argue that probability is irrelevant in international politics, as the outcomes of events are often unpredictable and uncontrollable. Friedman, however, challenges this view by demonstrating how probability can be used to improve decision-making by reducing the risk of catastrophic mistakes.

In addition to its theoretical and practical implications, "War and Chance" is a well-written and accessible book that will be of interest to scholars and practitioners of international politics, as well as to anyone who is interested in the challenges of decision-making in complex and uncertain environments. The book is organized into five chapters, each of which provides a clear and concise overview of the key concepts discussed. Friedman's writing is clear and engaging, and he uses a wealth of examples and anecdotes to illustrate his points.

One of the strengths of "War and Chance" is its ability to bridge the gap between theory and practice. Friedman draws on a wealth of empirical evidence to support his arguments, and he provides practical examples of how probabilistic reasoning can be applied to real-world foreign policy challenges. This makes the book particularly useful for policymakers and practitioners who are looking for practical tools and strategies for assessing uncertainty and making informed decisions.

Another strength of "War and Chance" is its ability to address the political dimensions of decision-making. Friedman recognizes that foreign policy decisions are often made in the context of complex and contentious political environments, and he provides insights into how political factors can influence decision-making processes. By examining the political dynamics of uncertainty, Friedman helps policymakers understand how to navigate the political landscape and make decisions that are both effective and politically sustainable.

In conclusion, "War and Chance" is a groundbreaking book that provides scholars and practitioners with new insights into the challenges of assessing uncertainty in international politics. By challenging the notion that uncertainty is a waste of time and by demonstrating how probabilistic reasoning can be used to improve decision-making, Friedman offers a valuable contribution to the field of international politics. The book is well-written, accessible, and grounded in a wealth of empirical evidence, making it an essential read for anyone interested in the complexities of decision-making in a world of uncertainty.

Weight: 356g
Dimension: 156 x 272 x 17 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780197619131