What are the Chances of That?: How to Think About Uncertainty

What are the Chances of That? is a book that explores the importance of understanding uncertainty and risk in our lives. It shows how our world is built on probability and identifies five obstacles to thinking about uncertainty that confuse us. The book goes cross-country to show how different areas of life and knowledge are connected through chance, proposing five "dualities" that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise.

Format: Hardback
Length: 384 pages
Publication date: 02 August 2021
Publisher: Oxford University Press

Chance permeates our daily lives, influencing every decision we make. Despite its profound impact, we often struggle to comprehend and manage uncertainty and risk. In his captivating book, Andrew C. A. Elliott delves into the reasons behind this cognitive deficiency. He unravels the threads that connect our world, revealing that probability governs our existence rather than certainty. Elliott identifies five obstacles that hinder our ability to think about uncertainty, perpetuating confusion time and again.

Rather than embarking on a casino adventure, Elliott takes us on a journey through diverse fields, including financial markets, health, genetics, evolution, music, and writing. What are the Chances of That? follows the trail of chance and randomness, transcending boundaries and cutting across domains. Through this cross-country exploration, Elliott offers a holistic perspective, showcasing how these various areas of life and knowledge are interconnected through the force of chance.

The book's primary objective is to foster a cross-disciplinary understanding of chance and its significance in our lives. It goes beyond a mere mathematical treatment, illuminating how our perception of chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history, culture, and, more recently, the mathematical theory of probability. Elliott proposes five "dualities" that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise when contemplating uncertainty.

These dualities include the distinction between chance and necessity, the interplay between predictability and unpredictability, the relationship between certainty and probability, the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and the paradox of probability. By exploring these dualities, Elliott provides a framework for navigating the complexities of uncertainty and making informed decisions.

In conclusion, What are the Chances of That? is a thought-provoking and enlightening book that challenges our preconceptions about chance and uncertainty. By delving into the origins of our cognitive limitations, Elliott offers valuable insights into how we can enhance our ability to think about these concepts and make more informed decisions in our daily lives. This book is a must-read for anyone interested in exploring the intricate relationship between chance, uncertainty, and decision-making.

Weight: 796g
Dimension: 165 x 240 x 28 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780198869023