Martha Whitesmith
Belief, Bias and Intelligence: Improving Analytical Efforts for National Intelligence
Belief, Bias and Intelligence: Improving Analytical Efforts for National Intelligence
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- More about Belief, Bias and Intelligence: Improving Analytical Efforts for National Intelligence
The book challenges the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method, finds it flawed, and proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias.
Format: Hardback
Length: 256 pages
Publication date: 31 October 2020
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
The book "Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: A Critical Examination of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses" examines the effectiveness of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method in reducing cognitive bias in intelligence analysis. The author conducts an experimental study to test the ACH method against two key cognitive biases and finds that it is significantly flawed. The book proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories. The author's research reveals that the ACH method does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases, and that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis. The book explains the underlying causes of cognitive biases based on meta-analyses of existing research and shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH. Recent high-profile intelligence failures, such as 9/11 and the 2003 Iraq war, prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. The book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of ACH and proposes an alternative approach that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories. The author's research provides valuable insights into the challenges of intelligence analysis and offers practical recommendations for improving the quality of intelligence analysis.
Weight: 600g
Dimension: 162 x 240 x 25 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9781474466349
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