Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

This book provides insights into the theory, methods, and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. It is divided into four parts, including current research fronts, the contributions of Roger Cooke, process, procedures, and education, and applications. The first part discusses expert elicitation of parameters, graphical models, Bayesian frameworks, preventive maintenance optimization, and lifetime distributions. The second part includes Roger Cooke's oration, reflections on the Classical Model's development, and an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover. The third part focuses on good elicitations, training courses, and specific experiences with SEJ protocols. The fourth part discusses applications in medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism, and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalize.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 503 pages
Publication date: 20 February 2022
Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland AG

This comprehensive book offers a diverse range of perspectives on the theory, methods, and practical applications of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. Divided into four parts, it explores various aspects of Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ).

The first part delves into expert elicitation techniques, including the parameters of multinomial models, the advantages of performance weighting, expert elicitation for specific graphical models, modeling dependencies between experts' assessments within a Bayesian framework, preventive maintenance optimization, eliciting life-time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process, and an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies.

The second part features Roger Cooke's 1995 oration upon assuming his chair at Delft University of Technology, providing insights into the early development and widespread use of the Classical Model. It also includes reflections by one of the editors on the early stages of the Classical Model's evolution and its practical applications. Additionally, this part offers a comprehensive overview of the Classical Model's theory, offering a deep and thorough perspective on its foundations and its practical applications.

The third part begins with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations, reviewing those advocated and applied. The book also discusses the design and development of a training course for SEJ, as well as specific experiences with SEJ protocols, aimed at presenting the challenges and opportunities associated with this approach.

Overall, this book serves as a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers interested in leveraging expert judgment to make informed decisions in complex environments. Its comprehensive coverage of SEJ theory, methods, and applications provides a solid foundation for further research and practical applications in various fields.

Weight: 807g
Dimension: 235 x 155 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9783030464769
Edition number: 1st ed. 2021