Senkaku Paradox: Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes

America needs better options for resolving potential crises, such as Russia's "little green men" seizing control of a community or China seizing one of the uninhabited Senkaku islands. Defense expert Michael O Hanlon advocates "integrated deterrence" to deter war through a credible set of responses that are more commensurate with the stakes involved.

Format: Paperback / softback
Length: 272 pages
Publication date: 28 February 2019
Publisher: Brookings Institution

America needs better options for resolving potential crises. In recent years, the Pentagon has elevated its concerns about Russia and China as potential military threats to the United States and its allies. But what issues could provoke actual conflict between the United States and either country? And how could such a conflict be contained before it took the world to the brink of thermonuclear catastrophe, as was feared during the cold war? Defense expert Michael O Hanlon wrestles with these questions in this insightful book, setting them within the broader context of hegemonic change and today's version of great-power competition. The book examines how a local crisis could escalate into a broader and much more dangerous threat to peace. What if, for example, Russia's "little green men" seized control of a community, like Narva or an even smaller town in Estonia, now a NATO ally? Or, what if China seized one of the uninhabited Senkaku islands now claimed and administered by Japan, or imposed a partial blockade of Taiwan? Such threats are not necessarily imminent, but they are far from inconceivable. Washington could be forced to choose, in these and similar cases, between risking major war to reverse the aggression, and appeasing China or Russia in ways that could jeopardize the broader global order. O Hanlon argues that the United States needs a better range of options for dealing with such risks to peace. He advocates "integrated deterrence," which combines military elements with economic warfare. The military components would feature strengthened forward defenses as well as, possibly, limited military options against Russian or Chinese assets in other theaters. Economic warfare would include offensive elements, notably sanctions, as well as measures to ensure the free flow of information and technology. O Hanlon's book is a timely and important contribution to the debate over America's role in the world. It offers a fresh perspective on the challenges facing the United States and its allies, and provides valuable insights into how to address them. By advocating for a more comprehensive and integrated approach to security, O Hanlon helps to ensure that America remains a leader in the fight for peace and stability in the years to come.
America needs better options for resolving potential crises. In recent years, the Pentagon has elevated its concerns about Russia and China as potential military threats to the United States and its allies. But what issues could provoke actual conflict between the United States and either country? And how could such a conflict be contained before it took the world to the brink of thermonuclear catastrophe, as was feared during the cold war? Defense expert Michael O Hanlon wrestles with these questions in this insightful book, setting them within the broader context of hegemonic change and today's version of great-power competition. The book examines how a local crisis could escalate into a broader and much more dangerous threat to peace. What if, for example, Russia's "little green men" seized control of a community, like Narva or an even smaller town in Estonia, now a NATO ally? Or, what if China seized one of the uninhabited Senkaku islands now claimed and administered by Japan, or imposed a partial blockade of Taiwan? Such threats are not necessarily imminent, but they are far from inconceivable. Washington could be forced to choose, in these and similar cases, between risking major war to reverse the aggression, and appeasing China or Russia in ways that could jeopardize the broader global order. O Hanlon argues that the United States needs a better range of options for dealing with such risks to peace. He advocates "integrated deterrence," which combines military elements with economic warfare. The military components would feature strengthened forward defenses as well as, possibly, limited military options against Russian or Chinese assets in other theaters. Economic warfare would include offensive elements, notably sanctions, as well as measures to ensure the free flow of information and technology. O Hanlon's book is a timely and important contribution to the debate over America's role in the world. It offers a fresh perspective on the challenges facing the United States and its allies, and provides valuable insights into how to address them. By advocating for a more comprehensive and integrated approach to security, O Hanlon helps to ensure that America remains a leader in the fight for peace and stability in the years to come.

Weight: 418g
Dimension: 153 x 229 x 17 (mm)
ISBN-13: 9780815736899